宏观经济指标和财务比率对印尼Sharia商业银行不良融资的影响

Sholikha Oktavi Khalifaturofi'ah
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究旨在分析宏观经济指标变量和财务比率对印尼伊斯兰教法商业银行不良融资的影响。本研究中使用的数据来自印尼银行、中央统计局(BPS)和金融服务管理局(OJK)。本研究使用了2010年1月至2016年8月的时间序列数据。该研究方法通过eviews程序,采用VAR方法进行定量研究。研究表明,NPF、通货膨胀、汇率、FDR、CAR和OER等变量之间不存在长期均衡关系。此外,所有自变量同时影响NPF变量。基于变量对NPF冲击的贡献,宏观经济指标变量为通货膨胀和汇率,金融比率变量为CAR和OER。从NPF反应来看,只有CAR变量在早期有积极反应,而其他变量则有消极和波动的反应。每个变量对NPF的影响都是暂时的,因为这些影响在五个多月后就会消失。基于因果关系检验,FDR与OERBahasa Indonesia Abstrak之间只有单向关系:本研究旨在分析可变宏观经济指标和财务比率对印尼上市公司银行不良融资(NPF)的关系和影响。本研究中使用的数据来自印度尼西亚银行、统计中心和金融服务管理局。本研究使用了2010年1月至2016年8月的时间序列数据。该研究方法通过eviews程序使用定量方法和VAR方法。研究表明,NPF、GDP、通货膨胀、汇率、FDR、CAR和OER变量之间没有长期平衡。此外,整个自变量同时影响NPF变量。根据对NPF冲击的可变贡献,对NPF影响的宏观经济指标是通货膨胀和利率,而对NPF的影响的金融比率是CAR和OER。基于NPF反应,只有CAR变量在期初对NPF有积极反应,而其他变量则对波动有消极反应。NPF的每个可变流入都是由于五个月后的损失而暂时产生的。根据你的唾液测试,FDR和OER之间只有历史关系。
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The Effects of Macro Economic Indicator and Financial Ratio on Non Performing Financing of Sharia Commercial Banking in Indonesia
This research aims to analyze the relationships and effects of macroeconomic indicator variable and financial ratio on non performing financing (NPF) of sharia commercial banks in Indonesia. Data used in this research is obtained from Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), and Financial Services Authority (OJK). This research uses time series data from January 2010 to August 2016. This research method uses quantitative method by VAR approach through eviews program. This research showed that there was no long-run equilibrium relationship between variables of NPF, inflation, exchange rate, FDR, CAR and OER. Besides, all independent variables simultaneously affected NPF variable. Based on variable contribution on NPF shock, macroeconomic indicator variables contributed on NPF shock were inflation and exchange rate, meanwhile financial ratio variables contributed on NPF shock were CAR and OER. Seen from NPF response, only CAR variable was responded positively in the early period, meanwhile other variables were responded negative and fluctuatingly. The effects of each variable on NPF were temporary since those effects would vanish after an over-five month period. Based on causality test, there was only a one-way relationship from FDR to OERBahasa Indonesia Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan dan pengaruh variabel indikator makroekonomi dan rasio keuangan terhadap non performing financing (NPF) pada bank umum syariah di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series dari bulan Januari 2010 sampai dengan Agustus 2016. Metode penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan pendekatan VAR melalui program eviews. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang di antara variabel NPF, GDP, Inflasi, nilai tukar, FDR, CAR, dan OER. Selain itu, seluruh variabel independen berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap variabel NPF. Berdasarkan kontribusi variabel terhadap shock NPF, variabel indikator makroekonomi yang berkontribusi terhadap shock NPF adalah inflasi dan kurs, sedangkan variabel rasio keuangan yang berkontribusi terhadap shock NPF adalah CAR dan OER. Dilihat dari respon NPF, hanya variabel CAR yang direspon secara positif oleh NPF pada awal periode sedangkan variabel yang lainnya direspon secara negatif dengan fluktuatif. Pengaruh masing-masing variabel terhadap NPF bersifat sementara karena pengaruh tersebut akan hilang setelah periode lima bulan ke atas. Berdasarkan uji kausalitas, hanya terdapat hubungan searah dari FDR ke OER. 
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