塔利班在阿富汗的接管和安全悖论

IF 0.8 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI:10.1177/23477970221130882
Nilofar Sakhi
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引用次数: 2

摘要

经过与美国和北约多年的长期武装冲突和战斗,塔利班于2021年8月15日在阿富汗夺取政权,推翻了20年的共和国制度,并宣布其为伊斯兰酋长国。如果没有一个使塔利班的权力和意识形态主张合法化的程序,阿富汗现在被一个基于极权主义意识形态的激进组织控制。引入了新版本的安全威胁和担忧。问题是,在这种情况下会出现什么样的安全问题,这些问题将如何影响阿富汗?本文对当前塔利班政权下的阿富汗政治和安全局势进行了评估。尽管塔利班最近接管阿富汗对不同的人来说意味着不同的事情——主要取决于他们在阿富汗社会中的社会阶层或他们来自哪里——但塔利班掌权以来的几个月为我们提供了证据,证明他们是如何运行信仰体系来管理国家的。它还表明,这已经并将如何影响个人、团体和整个阿富汗的安全保障。本文旨在解释塔利班的基本意识形态、网络、治理结构和性质将如何加剧阿富汗及其他地区的安全危机。本文探讨了极权主义制度的理论框架,以帮助理解塔利班政治制度的背景。然后,它特别关注抵抗运动和塔利班正在恢复的日益严重的性别隔离。最后,它深入探讨了安全的含义、复杂性、它是如何变化的,以及它将对阿富汗及其人民产生的影响。该分析的证据基于截至2022年3月发生的事件。需要强调的是,今天的情况和背景可能会发生变化,并对明天进行影响分析。然而,有一件事一直保持不变——塔利班巩固的极权主义框架,以及他们在展示自己时的战术和战略能力。
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The Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan and Security Paradox
After years of prolonged armed conflict and fighting with the United States and NATO, the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan on 15 August 2021, by overthrowing a 20-year-old republic system and declaring it an Islamic Emirate. Without a process that legitimised the Taliban’s power and ideological assertions, Afghanistan is now controlled by a militant group that operates out of a totalitarian ideology. A new version of security threats and concerns has been introduced. The question is, what kind of security issues will emerge under such circumstances, and how will these issues impact Afghanistan? This article provides an assessment of Afghanistan’s political and security situation under the current Taliban regime. While the recent Taliban takeover in Afghanistan means different things to different people—and depends mainly on their social class within Afghan society or where they are from—the months since the Taliban took power have provided us with evidence of how they are operationalising their belief systems to run the country. It has also demonstrated how this has and will impact the safety and security of individuals, groups and Afghanistan as a whole. This article aims to explain how the Taliban’s fundamental ideology, networks, governance composition and nature will exacerbate the security crisis in Afghanistan and beyond. The article explores the theoretical framework of a totalitarian system to help understand the context of the Taliban’s political system. It then looks specifically at the resistance movement and the growing gender apartheid that the Taliban is reinstating. Finally, it dives into the meaning of security, its complexity, how it’s changing, and the implications it will have for Afghanistan and its people. The evidence for this analysis is based on events that had taken place through March 2022. It is important to emphasise that today’s circumstances and context will likely change and impact analysis for tomorrow. However, one thing has remained constant—the Taliban’s undergirding totalitarian framework and their ability to be tactical and strategic in how they present themselves.
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