动态隔离下SARS-CoV-2传播建模

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering Pub Date : 2021-10-10 DOI:10.5206/mase/13886
Md. Azmir Ibne Islam, Sharmin Sultana Shanta, Ashrafur Rahman
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引用次数: 2

摘要

背景:严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型疫情正在全球范围内以更大的强度传播。公共卫生干预措施和流行病浪潮的同步性表明了对强调干预措施进行评估的重要性。方法:我们开发了一个数学模型来呈现严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型的传播动态,并分析隔离和筛查计划等关键非药物干预措施对美国新泽西州人民疾病结果的影响。流行病学和人口统计数据用于估计模型参数。对基线案例进行了进一步探讨,以展示几个关键和预测情景。结果和分析:模型模拟与2020年3月5日至2021年1月31日期间的感染数据非常一致。动态隔离和筛查计划被发现是可以改变疫情进程的潜在措施。隔离率增加7%可能会使疫情高峰减少31%,而筛查率增加3倍可能会使流行病高峰减少35%。该模型预测,新泽西州近9.7%至12%的总人口可能在2021年7月中旬感染,累计死亡24.6万至27.3万人。在广泛的可能情况下,存在第三波疫情的可能性结论:我们的研究结果可能对公共卫生界提供信息,以在有限或没有疫苗覆盖的情况下重新开放经济的情况下遏制疫情。通过适当的筛查和隔离计划可以避免额外的疫情浪潮。
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Modeling SARS-CoV-2 spread with dynamic isolation
Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is spreading with a greater intensity across the globe. The synchrony of public health interventions and epidemic waves signify the importance of evaluation of the underline interventions. Method: We developed a mathematical model to present the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and to analyze the impact of key nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation and screening program on the disease outcomes to the people of New Jersey, USA. We introduced a dynamic isolation of susceptible population with a constant (imposed) and infection oriented interventions. Epidemiological and demographic data are used to estimate the model parameters. The baseline case was explored further to showcase several critical and predictive scenarios. Results and analysis: The model simulations are in good agreement with the infection data for the period of 5 March 2020 to 31 January 2021. Dynamic isolation and screening program are found to be potential measures that can alter the course of epidemic. A  7% increase in isolation rate may result in a 31% reduction of epidemic peak whereas a 3 times increase in screening rate may reduce the epidemic peak by 35%. The model predicts that nearly 9.7% to 12% of the total population of New Jersey may become infected within the middle of July 2021 along with 24.6 to 27.3 thousand cumulative deaths. Within a wide spectrum of probable scenarios, there is a possibility of third wave Conclusion: Our findings could be informative to the public health community to contain the pandemic in the case of economy reopening under a limited or no vaccine coverage. Additional epidemic waves can be avoided by appropriate screening and isolation plans. 
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CiteScore
1.40
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0.00%
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审稿时长
21 weeks
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