模拟月经开始年龄和制定月经周期生命表

Pub Date : 2021-10-14 DOI:10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1428
Brijesh P Singh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人口科学家一般都在发展人口统计学的数学模型/技术,并对大量的数据集提供简短的解释。本文的主要目的是提出一个概率模型来说明女性第一次月经的年龄分布。月经初潮年龄分布用于评估与生殖问题有关的风险,并可作为女性生育能力的人口指标。用实际数据集验证了所提模型的适用性。利用最小二乘估计技术对所提出的分布参数进行了估计。观察到,老年女性的初潮年龄略高于年轻女性的初潮年龄。我们还利用概率模型构造了月经初潮年龄的生命表。这个生命表能够提供特定年龄的女孩月经初潮的预期持续时间。
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Modeling Age at Menstrual Onset and Developing Menarcheal Life Table
Population scientists are generally developing mathematical models/techniques in demography and to provide brief explanation of extensive data sets. The prime objective of the present paper is to propose a probability model to illustrate the distribution of female’s age at first menstrual onset. Menarcheal age distribution is used to evaluate risk associated to reproductive issues and may be used as a demographic indicator of female fecundity. The suitability of proposed model is tested with the real data sets. Parameters of the proposed distribution have been estimated through least square estimation technique. It is observed that older female’s age at menarche is somewhat higher than the younger female’s age at menarche. Also we have constructed a life table for menarcheal age using a probability model. This life table is enable to provide expected duration of getting menarche for a girl of a particular age.
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