建筑消防的成本效益分析:现值法的应用

IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Fire Technology Pub Date : 2023-05-09 DOI:10.1007/s10694-023-01419-2
Thomas Gernay, Shuna Ni, David Unobe, Andrea Lucherini, Ranjit Chaudhary, Ruben Van Coile
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引用次数: 3

摘要

在消防安全工程中,成本效益分析提供了一种系统的方法来评估一项消防安全措施的预期收益是否超过其成本。然而,在该领域用于成本效益分析的方法之间仍然存在很大差异,并且缺乏关于建筑物防火成本和经济影响的定量数据。在最近的一个研究项目中,提出了一种基于现值评估的参考方法,结合专业建筑数据库、火灾统计和数值建模来估计成本组成部分。本文介绍了该方法在四个案例研究中的应用。案例研究允许描述方法、数据收集、火灾统计和损失估计,以及说明方法如何在多个备选方案进行比较时支持决策。在单户住宅和木结构住宅案例研究中所采用的假设下,发现在洒水装置上每投资1美元,可节省1.06美元。这种收益成本比随着间接损失和生命统计价值的增加而增加。提供敏感性分析以探索投资建议的稳健性。评估的结果,改编自所提出的带有项目特定输入的案例研究,可以支持政策制定者、保险公司和个别建筑物所有者的决策制定。
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Cost–Benefit Analysis of Fire Protection in Buildings: Application of a Present Net Value Approach

In fire safety engineering, cost–benefit analysis provides a systematic method to assess whether the projected benefits from a fire safety measure outweigh its costs. However, there remains a wide discrepancy between methods used in the field for cost–benefit analysis, as well as a lack of quantitative data on the costs and economic impact of fire protection in buildings. In a recent research project, a reference methodology was proposed based on Present Net Value evaluation and on a combination of specialized construction database, fire statistics, and numerical modeling for estimation of the cost components. This paper presents the application of the methodology to four case studies. The case studies allow describing the methodology, the collection of data, fire statistics, and loss estimation, as well as illustrating how the methodology can support decision-making when multiple alternatives are compared. Under the assumptions adopted for the single-family house and the residential timber building case studies, it is found that for every 1$ invested in sprinklers, $1.06 is saved. This benefit–cost ratio increases with increasing valuation of indirect losses and statistical value of life. Sensitivity analyses are provided to explore the robustness of the investment recommendations. The results of evaluations, adapted from the presented case studies with project-specific inputs, can support decision making for policy makers, insurance companies, and individual building owners.

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来源期刊
Fire Technology
Fire Technology 工程技术-材料科学:综合
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
14.70%
发文量
137
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: Fire Technology publishes original contributions, both theoretical and empirical, that contribute to the solution of problems in fire safety science and engineering. It is the leading journal in the field, publishing applied research dealing with the full range of actual and potential fire hazards facing humans and the environment. It covers the entire domain of fire safety science and engineering problems relevant in industrial, operational, cultural, and environmental applications, including modeling, testing, detection, suppression, human behavior, wildfires, structures, and risk analysis. The aim of Fire Technology is to push forward the frontiers of knowledge and technology by encouraging interdisciplinary communication of significant technical developments in fire protection and subjects of scientific interest to the fire protection community at large. It is published in conjunction with the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and the Society of Fire Protection Engineers (SFPE). The mission of NFPA is to help save lives and reduce loss with information, knowledge, and passion. The mission of SFPE is advancing the science and practice of fire protection engineering internationally.
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