数据驱动的现金管理多目标决策

IF 2.3 Q3 MANAGEMENT EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI:10.1007/s40070-017-0075-y
Francisco Salas-Molina , Juan A. Rodríguez-Aguilar
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引用次数: 5

摘要

在不久的将来,商业和金融数据的数量和可用性可能会继续增加。然而,由于数据驱动的技术和通常的决策过程之间缺乏整合,这些数据的使用绝不是直截了当的。本文旨在通过机器学习将数据与现金管理中的多目标决策相结合。为此,我们首先将现金流量预测视为一个数据驱动的过程,作为多目标现金管理问题的关键输入,其中成本和风险都是最小化的目标。接下来,我们计算预测溢价,即在预测准确性的交换中可以实现多少价值。最后,我们为现金管理者提供了一种通用的方法,通过使用数据和机器学习技术来改善现金管理中的决策。这种方法基于一种新颖的闭环程序,其中估计的预测溢价(如果有的话)被用作关键反馈信息,以找到更好的预测模型,并最终在现金管理中获得更好的成本风险结果。
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Data-driven multiobjective decision-making in cash management

The volume and availability of business and finance data may continue to increase in the near future. However, the utility of such data is by no means straightforward due to a lack of integration between data-driven techniques and usual decision-making processes. This paper aims to integrate data with multiobjective decision-making in cash management by means of machine learning. To this end, we first consider cash flow forecasting as a data-driven procedure to be used as a key input to multiobjective cash management problem in which both cost and risk are goals to minimize. Next, we compute the forecasting premium, namely, how much value can be achieved in exchange of predictive accuracy. Finally, we provide cash managers with a general methodology to improve decision-making in cash management through the use of data and machine learning techniques. This methodology is based on a novel closed-loop procedure in which the estimated forecasting premium (if any) is used as a critical feedback information to find better forecasting models and, ultimately, better cost-risk results in cash management.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
10.00%
发文量
15
期刊最新文献
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