{"title":"盖洛普在北约成员国选择中的民主:芬兰和瑞典的案例","authors":"V. Kanniainen","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifac008","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The article asks whether the exercising of the NATO membership option is justified for Finland and Sweden in the light of their geopolitical state after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. It was the Gallup democracy, which launched the political moves toward the membership. In both countries, the majority of people turned to favor the membership within 2–3 months. Finland activated first. Sweden was fast in catching up with the Finnish process. The theory of option pricing is employed to analyze the optimal timing of exercising the option when the uncertainty regarding the value of the membership is rapidly diluting. The Turkish intervention in the membership process after the membership applications of Finland and Sweden were delivered suggests a bargaining phase once the application is delivered. Finally, the effects of the Gallup surveys on the political equilibrium are analyzed in a voter–politician model (JEL codes: D72, D74, and H56).","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Gallup Democracy in Exercising the NATO Membership Option: The Cases of Finland and Sweden\",\"authors\":\"V. Kanniainen\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/cesifo/ifac008\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n The article asks whether the exercising of the NATO membership option is justified for Finland and Sweden in the light of their geopolitical state after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. It was the Gallup democracy, which launched the political moves toward the membership. In both countries, the majority of people turned to favor the membership within 2–3 months. Finland activated first. Sweden was fast in catching up with the Finnish process. The theory of option pricing is employed to analyze the optimal timing of exercising the option when the uncertainty regarding the value of the membership is rapidly diluting. The Turkish intervention in the membership process after the membership applications of Finland and Sweden were delivered suggests a bargaining phase once the application is delivered. Finally, the effects of the Gallup surveys on the political equilibrium are analyzed in a voter–politician model (JEL codes: D72, D74, and H56).\",\"PeriodicalId\":51748,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cesifo Economic Studies\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-08-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cesifo Economic Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifac008\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cesifo Economic Studies","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifac008","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Gallup Democracy in Exercising the NATO Membership Option: The Cases of Finland and Sweden
The article asks whether the exercising of the NATO membership option is justified for Finland and Sweden in the light of their geopolitical state after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. It was the Gallup democracy, which launched the political moves toward the membership. In both countries, the majority of people turned to favor the membership within 2–3 months. Finland activated first. Sweden was fast in catching up with the Finnish process. The theory of option pricing is employed to analyze the optimal timing of exercising the option when the uncertainty regarding the value of the membership is rapidly diluting. The Turkish intervention in the membership process after the membership applications of Finland and Sweden were delivered suggests a bargaining phase once the application is delivered. Finally, the effects of the Gallup surveys on the political equilibrium are analyzed in a voter–politician model (JEL codes: D72, D74, and H56).
期刊介绍：
CESifo Economic Studies publishes provocative, high-quality papers in economics, with a particular focus on policy issues. Papers by leading academics are written for a wide and global audience, including those in government, business, and academia. The journal combines theory and empirical research in a style accessible to economists across all specialisations.
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