Energy Transformation: Challenges and Opportunities — The Polish Case

Abstract The article, meant as the first in a series, tries to answer some questions around the future desired shape of the new Polish electro-energy mix in relation to the one described in the national energy policy document PEP 2040 (Energy Policy of Poland till 2040) and as compared with the targets set up in the newest UE legislative package, ‘Fit-for-55’. In this article, I first present the rich overview of literature as well as economic theory behind the analysis of the energy transformation and energy-mix decarbonisation, in order to show how the energy mix should evolve in a way that will guarantee the biggest net gain to the society. Second, some comparable cost calculations on selected electro-energy sources, both LCOE (levelized cost of energy) and external costs are presented; these are modifications of my previous work as a co-author. Finally, the comparison of the 2040 electro-energy mix, as designed in the official governmental programme PEP 2040, with the two alternative scenarios, both of which exclude coal, and one also neglects the possibilities for nuclear energy to be included in the mix are presented. The alternative scenarios built into the paper are based on European Union (EU) plans to decarbonise Europe quickly. Recent geopolitical considerations related to the war in Ukraine, however, make it necessary to consider energy security as an important part of the plan. That would mean that nuclear energy would be a necessary component of the future mix in Poland. Security considerations are left to be analysed in the coming months, after a series of articles on lessons learnt by other developed countries in the process of making their energy-mix transformations and will complete the final recommendations for the future of the Polish energy mix.