The magnitude and direction of changes in age-specific at-risk-of-poverty rates: an analysis of patterns of poverty trends in Europe in the mid-2010s

Abstract The European Union’s at-risk-of-poverty threshold is set at 60 per cent of national median disposable equivalent income. Changes in median income therefore shift the threshold, which is likely to affect at-risk-of-poverty rates. This effect is likely to vary across population subgroups due to, for instance, connectedness to the labour market. This exploratory study investigates whether there are typical patterns related to changes in age-specific at-risk-of-poverty rates. The study uses European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions microdata and focusses on the development of poverty rates in 30 European countries in the mid-2010s. Results show that especially the old-age poverty rates followed patterns that were different from those of child or working-age poverty rates. There were differences between age groups regarding both the magnitude and direction of at-risk-of-poverty rates. Additionally, the association between changes in at-risk-of-poverty rates and changes in poverty thresholds, income and employment significantly differs between the older population and the two other age groups.