俄罗斯社会

S. Demidenko
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摘要

在1917年历史事件100周年纪念前夕,社会学家、政治学家和经济学家对当今俄罗斯社会做出了诊断。近年来发生的事件(克里米亚统一、俄罗斯联邦与西方国家关系恶化、实施制裁和报复性反制裁、经济危机、更换美国政治领导人等)不仅改变了政治和社会背景,也使该国人民的社会期望发生了变化。2016年的研究发现,俄罗斯人的焦虑情绪有所上升,但对该国局势的评估远非灾难性的。专家们不仅讨论了这一现象的原因,而且还讨论了经济危机发展为政治危机的可能性。人们试图确定未来几年俄罗斯政治体制转型的方向。预测了俄罗斯在未来五到十年可能面临的新挑战和威胁。分析了可能使俄罗斯进入新的定性状态的经济和政治趋势。专家们得出的结论是,今天的俄罗斯社会状况是稳定的,但政府对未来缺乏战略眼光也可能导致严重后果。
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Russian Society
On the eve of the 100th anniversary jubilee of the historic events of 1917, sociologists, political scientists, and economists offer their diagnoses of present-day Russian society. The events of recent years (the reunification of Crimea, the deterioration of the Russian Federation’s relations with Western countries, the imposition of sanctions and retaliatory countersanctions, the economic crisis, the replacement of the political leader of the United States, etc.) have not only altered the political and social context but have also produced changes in the social expectations of the country’s population. Studies in 20161 found an increase in anxious attitudes among Russians, yet the assessments of the situation in the country are nowhere near disastrous. The experts discuss not only the reasons for this phenomenon, but also the possibility that the economic crisis will develop into a political one. An attempt is made to determine the direction in which the political regime of today’s Russia will be transformed in the next few years. A forecast is made about the new challenges and threats that Russia may face in the next five to ten years. The economic and political trends that may take Russia to a new qualitative condition are analyzed. The experts arrive at the conclusion that the condition of Russian society today is stable, but the government’s lack of a strategic vision for the future may also lead to dramatic consequences.
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