Covid-19 impact on US housing markets: evidence from spatial regression models

ABSTRACT This paper empirically investigates the conventional wisdom that urban residents have reacted to the Covid-19 pandemic by fleeing city centres for the suburbs. A conventional panel model of US ZIP code-level data provides mixed evidence in support of a shifting housing preference for more space or neighbourhoods farther from the urban core. Regressions accounting for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity show strong support of an urban flight within metro areas, but this local phenomenon is uneven across broad regions of the United States. The finding of geographical disparity underscores both the local as well as the regional nature of housing market conditions.