Peculiarities and ecological consequences of climate warming in the Northern Caspian semi-desert

Data on the weather conditions and monitoring of vegetation ecosystems in the Northern Caspian semi-desert for the 70-year period were analyzed. A gradual increase in the average air temperature per hydrological year by 2.73ºC (0.039ºC/year) has been revealed. Before and after the 2000s its increase was caused by warming of the cold and warm period of the year, respectively. An increase of the annual atmospheric precipitation in the spring-summer period was detected, mainly in 1978–1995 due to April-June precipitation. The humidification coefficient dynamics allows distinguishing three periods. The first period (1951–1977) is characterized by insignificant fluctuations around the average value (0.30); the second period (1978–1994) is characterized by good moisture, and the third period (1995–2020), on the contrary, – by severe aridity. These climate changes have led to significant transformation of the snow cover formation mechanisms, the surface runoff of spring melt water, and the ground water level. Despite such fluctuations of natural conditions, the annual productivity of virgin vegetation remains in dynamic equilibrium, changing over time in a wave-like manner, with no introduction of heterogeneous species. The protective afforestation has no chance for sustainable development due to warming of the winter months by 2000, which led to the absence of additional moistening of forest crops for a long period due to the deficiency of snow accumulation and surface inflow of spring melt water. The shrinkage of forest stands was intensified by recurrent annual summer atmospheric droughts. The production of agricultural crops was discontinued since the mid-1990s due to their annual failure, as well as the aridity of the growing seasons. The climate warming of the last two decades has brought the landscape of the flat semi-desert territory of the Northern Caspian region ever closer to its original state without agricultural fields and forest plantations. The population of the region is forced to return to extensive cattle breeding, which has existed here since ancient times.