欢迎难民,但不是在我的后院?移民对右翼投票的影响:来自德国的证据

Johannes Jasny, T. Becker
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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要本文研究了选民社区的移民是否是德国主要右翼政党德国另类选择党(AFD)崛起和安格拉·默克尔的中间执政党基督教民主联盟(CDU)衰落的驱动因素。我们将2015年的难民危机作为一个自然实验,研究难民存在对德国城市投票行为的短期影响。这是第一项使用空间计量经济学框架结合小规模移民数据、选举数据和一系列社会经济因素的研究。我们的主要发现表明,当地移民增加了AFD的选票,但没有直接影响CDU的选票。相反,在间接感知移民的地区,即邻近的城市,基民盟获得的选票更少。
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Refugees welcome, but not in my backyard? The impact of immigration on right-wing voting: evidence from Germany
Abstract This article studies whether immigration in voter’s neighborhoods is a driving factor of the rise of Germany’s major right-wing party Alternative fuer Deutschland (AFD) and the decline of Angela Merkel’s center ruling party the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). We use the 2015 refugee crisis as a natural experiment to study the short-run impact of refugee presence on the voting behavior in German municipalities. This is the first study to use a spatial econometric framework combining small-scale immigration data, election data, and a set of socioeconomic factors. Our main finding states that the local immigration boosted AFD votes but did not affect CDU votes directly. Instead, in regions that perceived immigration indirectly, that is in neighboring municipalities, the CDU gained fewer votes.
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来源期刊
IZA Journal of Development and Migration
IZA Journal of Development and Migration Social Sciences-Anthropology
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
8
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊最新文献
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