{"title":"利用投入产出模型分析俄乌危机对印度经济的影响","authors":"Bishal Dey Sarkar, Laxmi Gupta","doi":"10.1108/jgoss-08-2022-0085","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\nPurpose\nThe conflict in Russian Ukraine is a problem for the world economy because it hinders growth and drives up inflation when it is already high. The trade route between India and Russia is also impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This study aims to compile the most recent data on how the present global economic crisis is affecting it, with particular emphasis on the Indian economy.\n\n\nDesign/methodology/approach\nThis research develops a mathematical forecasting model to evaluate how the Russia-Ukraine crisis would affect the Indian economy when perturbations are applied to the major transport sectors. Input-output modeling (I-O model) and interval programing (IP) are the two precise methods used in the model. The inoperability I-O model developed by Wassily Leontief examines how disruption in one sector of the economy spreads to the other. To capture data uncertainties, IP has been added to IIM.\n\n\nFindings\nThis study uses the forecasted inoperability value to analyze how the sectors are interconnected. Economic loss is used to determine the lowest and highest priority sectors due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy. Furthermore, this study provides a decision-support conclusion for studying the sectors under various scenarios.\n\n\nResearch limitations/implications\nIn future studies, other sectors could be added to study the Russian-Ukrainian crises’ effects on the Indian economy. Perturbation is only applied to transport sectors and could be applied to other sectors for studying the effects of the crisis. The availability of incomplete data is a significant concern in this study.\n\n\nOriginality/value\nRussia-Ukraine conflict is a significant blow to the global economy and affects the global transportation network. This study discusses the application of the IIM-IP model to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It also forecasts the values to examine how the crisis affected the Indian economy. This study uses a variety of scenarios to create a decision-support conclusion table that aids decision-makers in analyzing the Indian economy’s lowest and most affected sectors as a result of the crisis.\n","PeriodicalId":43346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analyzing the impact of Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy using input-output modeling\",\"authors\":\"Bishal Dey Sarkar, Laxmi Gupta\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/jgoss-08-2022-0085\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\nPurpose\\nThe conflict in Russian Ukraine is a problem for the world economy because it hinders growth and drives up inflation when it is already high. The trade route between India and Russia is also impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This study aims to compile the most recent data on how the present global economic crisis is affecting it, with particular emphasis on the Indian economy.\\n\\n\\nDesign/methodology/approach\\nThis research develops a mathematical forecasting model to evaluate how the Russia-Ukraine crisis would affect the Indian economy when perturbations are applied to the major transport sectors. Input-output modeling (I-O model) and interval programing (IP) are the two precise methods used in the model. The inoperability I-O model developed by Wassily Leontief examines how disruption in one sector of the economy spreads to the other. To capture data uncertainties, IP has been added to IIM.\\n\\n\\nFindings\\nThis study uses the forecasted inoperability value to analyze how the sectors are interconnected. Economic loss is used to determine the lowest and highest priority sectors due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy. Furthermore, this study provides a decision-support conclusion for studying the sectors under various scenarios.\\n\\n\\nResearch limitations/implications\\nIn future studies, other sectors could be added to study the Russian-Ukrainian crises’ effects on the Indian economy. Perturbation is only applied to transport sectors and could be applied to other sectors for studying the effects of the crisis. The availability of incomplete data is a significant concern in this study.\\n\\n\\nOriginality/value\\nRussia-Ukraine conflict is a significant blow to the global economy and affects the global transportation network. This study discusses the application of the IIM-IP model to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It also forecasts the values to examine how the crisis affected the Indian economy. This study uses a variety of scenarios to create a decision-support conclusion table that aids decision-makers in analyzing the Indian economy’s lowest and most affected sectors as a result of the crisis.\\n\",\"PeriodicalId\":43346,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-07-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/jgoss-08-2022-0085\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jgoss-08-2022-0085","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analyzing the impact of Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy using input-output modeling
Purpose
The conflict in Russian Ukraine is a problem for the world economy because it hinders growth and drives up inflation when it is already high. The trade route between India and Russia is also impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This study aims to compile the most recent data on how the present global economic crisis is affecting it, with particular emphasis on the Indian economy.
Design/methodology/approach
This research develops a mathematical forecasting model to evaluate how the Russia-Ukraine crisis would affect the Indian economy when perturbations are applied to the major transport sectors. Input-output modeling (I-O model) and interval programing (IP) are the two precise methods used in the model. The inoperability I-O model developed by Wassily Leontief examines how disruption in one sector of the economy spreads to the other. To capture data uncertainties, IP has been added to IIM.
Findings
This study uses the forecasted inoperability value to analyze how the sectors are interconnected. Economic loss is used to determine the lowest and highest priority sectors due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy. Furthermore, this study provides a decision-support conclusion for studying the sectors under various scenarios.
Research limitations/implications
In future studies, other sectors could be added to study the Russian-Ukrainian crises’ effects on the Indian economy. Perturbation is only applied to transport sectors and could be applied to other sectors for studying the effects of the crisis. The availability of incomplete data is a significant concern in this study.
Originality/value
Russia-Ukraine conflict is a significant blow to the global economy and affects the global transportation network. This study discusses the application of the IIM-IP model to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It also forecasts the values to examine how the crisis affected the Indian economy. This study uses a variety of scenarios to create a decision-support conclusion table that aids decision-makers in analyzing the Indian economy’s lowest and most affected sectors as a result of the crisis.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing aims to foster and lead the international debate on global operations and strategic sourcing. It provides a central, authoritative and independent forum for the critical evaluation and dissemination of research and development, applications, processes and current practices relating to sourcing strategically for products, services, competences and resources on a global scale and to designing, implementing and managing the resulting global operations. Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing places a strong emphasis on applied research with relevant implications for both knowledge and practice. Also, the journal aims to facilitate the exchange of ideas and opinions on research projects and issues. As such, on top of a standard section publishing scientific articles, there will be two additional sections: "The Industry ViewPoint": in this section, industrial practitioners from around the world will be invited (max 2 contributions per issue) to present their point of view on a relevant subject area. This is intended to give the journal not just an academic focus, but a practical focus as well. In this way, we intend to reflect a trend that has characterised the past few decades, where interests and initiatives in research, academia and industry have been more and more converging to the point of collaborative relationships being a common practice. "Research Updates - Executive Summaries". In this section, researchers around the world will be given the opportunity to present their research projects in the area of global sourcing and outsourcing by means of an executive summary of their project. This will increase awareness of the on-going research projects in the area and it will attract interest from industry.