利用投入产出模型分析俄乌危机对印度经济的影响

Bishal Dey Sarkar, Laxmi Gupta
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引用次数: 1

摘要

俄罗斯乌克兰的冲突对世界经济来说是一个问题,因为它阻碍了增长,并在已经很高的情况下推高了通货膨胀。印度和俄罗斯之间的贸易路线也受到俄乌危机的影响。这项研究的目的是汇编当前全球经济危机如何影响它的最新数据,特别强调印度经济。设计/方法/方法本研究开发了一个数学预测模型,以评估当扰动应用于主要运输部门时,俄罗斯-乌克兰危机将如何影响印度经济。输入输出建模(I-O模型)和区间规划(IP)是模型中使用的两种精确方法。瓦西里·莱昂惕夫(Wassily Leontief)开发的不可操作性I-O模型研究了经济中一个部门的破坏如何扩散到另一个部门。为了捕捉数据的不确定性,IIM中添加了IP。本研究使用预测的不可操作性值来分析各部门如何相互关联。经济损失用于确定俄乌危机对印度经济的最低和最高优先级部门。此外,本研究为不同情景下的行业研究提供了决策支持结论。在未来的研究中,可以增加其他部门来研究俄罗斯-乌克兰危机对印度经济的影响。扰动只适用于运输部门,可以应用于其他部门,以研究危机的影响。不完整数据的可用性是本研究的一个重要问题。俄乌冲突对全球经济是一个重大打击,并影响到全球运输网络。本研究探讨IIM-IP模型在俄乌冲突中的应用。它还预测了经济危机如何影响印度经济的价值。本研究使用多种场景来创建决策支持结论表,帮助决策者分析印度经济中受危机影响最低和最严重的部门。
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Analyzing the impact of Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy using input-output modeling
Purpose The conflict in Russian Ukraine is a problem for the world economy because it hinders growth and drives up inflation when it is already high. The trade route between India and Russia is also impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This study aims to compile the most recent data on how the present global economic crisis is affecting it, with particular emphasis on the Indian economy. Design/methodology/approach This research develops a mathematical forecasting model to evaluate how the Russia-Ukraine crisis would affect the Indian economy when perturbations are applied to the major transport sectors. Input-output modeling (I-O model) and interval programing (IP) are the two precise methods used in the model. The inoperability I-O model developed by Wassily Leontief examines how disruption in one sector of the economy spreads to the other. To capture data uncertainties, IP has been added to IIM. Findings This study uses the forecasted inoperability value to analyze how the sectors are interconnected. Economic loss is used to determine the lowest and highest priority sectors due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy. Furthermore, this study provides a decision-support conclusion for studying the sectors under various scenarios. Research limitations/implications In future studies, other sectors could be added to study the Russian-Ukrainian crises’ effects on the Indian economy. Perturbation is only applied to transport sectors and could be applied to other sectors for studying the effects of the crisis. The availability of incomplete data is a significant concern in this study. Originality/value Russia-Ukraine conflict is a significant blow to the global economy and affects the global transportation network. This study discusses the application of the IIM-IP model to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It also forecasts the values to examine how the crisis affected the Indian economy. This study uses a variety of scenarios to create a decision-support conclusion table that aids decision-makers in analyzing the Indian economy’s lowest and most affected sectors as a result of the crisis.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
31
期刊介绍: The Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing aims to foster and lead the international debate on global operations and strategic sourcing. It provides a central, authoritative and independent forum for the critical evaluation and dissemination of research and development, applications, processes and current practices relating to sourcing strategically for products, services, competences and resources on a global scale and to designing, implementing and managing the resulting global operations. Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing places a strong emphasis on applied research with relevant implications for both knowledge and practice. Also, the journal aims to facilitate the exchange of ideas and opinions on research projects and issues. As such, on top of a standard section publishing scientific articles, there will be two additional sections: "The Industry ViewPoint": in this section, industrial practitioners from around the world will be invited (max 2 contributions per issue) to present their point of view on a relevant subject area. This is intended to give the journal not just an academic focus, but a practical focus as well. In this way, we intend to reflect a trend that has characterised the past few decades, where interests and initiatives in research, academia and industry have been more and more converging to the point of collaborative relationships being a common practice. "Research Updates - Executive Summaries". In this section, researchers around the world will be given the opportunity to present their research projects in the area of global sourcing and outsourcing by means of an executive summary of their project. This will increase awareness of the on-going research projects in the area and it will attract interest from industry.
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