Influence of economic decoupling in assessing carbon budget quotas for the European Union

In the present study, for the first time, an effort sharing approach based on Inertia and Capability principles is proposed to assess European Union (EU27) carbon budget distribution among the Member States. This is done within the context of achieving the Green Deal objective and EU27 carbon neutrality by 2050. An in-depth analysis is carried out about the role of Economic Decoupling embedded in the Capability principle to evaluate the correlation between the expected increase of economic production and the level of carbon intensity in the Member States. As decarbonization is a dynamic process, the study proposes a simple mathematical model as a policy tool to assess and redistribute Member States carbon budgets as frequently as necessary to encourage progress or overcome the difficulties each Member State may face during the decarbonization pathways.