墨西哥与美国商业和金融关系的相关方面及其在特朗普新政府中的延续

J. Durán
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摘要

随着特朗普成为美国总统,该国的银行体系不会发生重大变化。当然,它将继续像现在这样运作,将融资集中于大企业和政府;发放工资和抵押贷款是风险最低、利润最高的;管理衍生品(即使是美元衍生品,考虑到预期的剧烈波动),收取各种佣金。甚至有人设想,通过放松自2007-2009年金融危机以来采用的规则,它的主导地位可能会扩大。本文分析了三个方面:明斯基关于债务、经济开放和金融不稳定的一些理论观点;墨西哥和美国之间的一些经济金融联系,以及国际层面和墨西哥银行业的最新情况。使用的方法很简单,基于一个非正统的理论框架,进行统计分析,以确定经济和金融变量,从而评估两国之间的牢固关系。有了这个诊断,它就有可能窥见一些趋势。结论是,除非北美自由贸易协定的谈判或两国的经济政策发生变化,否则墨西哥很难在其经济和金融地位上做出重大改变。
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Relevant Aspects in the Commercial and Financial Relations between Mexico and the USA and Its Continuity in the New Trump Administration
The banking system that operates in the country will not have major changes, with the arrival of Trump to the presidency of the USA. Surely, it will continue to operate as it has until now, concentrating the financing to large companies and the government; providing credit on payroll and mortgage are the least risky and most profitable; managing derivative products (even in dollars given the strong expected volatility), and charging all kinds of commissions. It is even envisaged that its dominance could be expanded by deregulation of the rules adopted since the financial crises of 2007-2009. This paper analyzes three aspects: some minskian theoretical views on debt, economic openness and financial instability; some economic - financial links between Mexico and the United States, and the recent situation of banking at the international level and in Mexico. The method used is simple, based on a heterodox theoretical framework, a statistical analysis is carried out that allows identifying economic and financial variables that allow valuing the strong relations between both countries. With this diagnosis its possible glimpse some trends. It is concluded that it is difficult for Mexico to make significant changes in its economic and financial position, unless there is a change in the negotiation of NAFTA or in the economic policy of both countries.
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