{"title":"对离家在外的食物和熟食的未来需求:日本的队列和年龄影响","authors":"S. Fujioka, M. Fukushige","doi":"10.1515/jafio-2017-0038","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The demand for two composite goods, food away from home (FAFH) and prepared food (PF), are trending upward in Japan as Japanese society ages. This paper estimates the demand function of FAFH and PF. We adopt the almost ideal demand system and predict the effect on future demand from age and cohort changes. We find that the age effect decreases both while the cohort effect increases the share of FAFH but decreases that of PF. Over time, the demand for FAFH gradually decreases but remains stable. The demand for PF has been decreasing as of 2010 and more quickly than for FAFH. The reason is that both the age effect and the dynamic population trend decrease the demand for both goods, while the cohort effect slows the decrease in demand for FAFH but accelerates that for PF.","PeriodicalId":52541,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jafio-2017-0038","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Future of Demand for Food Away from Home and Prepared Food: Cohort and Age Effects in Japan\",\"authors\":\"S. Fujioka, M. Fukushige\",\"doi\":\"10.1515/jafio-2017-0038\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract The demand for two composite goods, food away from home (FAFH) and prepared food (PF), are trending upward in Japan as Japanese society ages. This paper estimates the demand function of FAFH and PF. We adopt the almost ideal demand system and predict the effect on future demand from age and cohort changes. We find that the age effect decreases both while the cohort effect increases the share of FAFH but decreases that of PF. Over time, the demand for FAFH gradually decreases but remains stable. The demand for PF has been decreasing as of 2010 and more quickly than for FAFH. The reason is that both the age effect and the dynamic population trend decrease the demand for both goods, while the cohort effect slows the decrease in demand for FAFH but accelerates that for PF.\",\"PeriodicalId\":52541,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-07-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jafio-2017-0038\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1515/jafio-2017-0038\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Business, Management and Accounting\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jafio-2017-0038","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Business, Management and Accounting","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Future of Demand for Food Away from Home and Prepared Food: Cohort and Age Effects in Japan
Abstract The demand for two composite goods, food away from home (FAFH) and prepared food (PF), are trending upward in Japan as Japanese society ages. This paper estimates the demand function of FAFH and PF. We adopt the almost ideal demand system and predict the effect on future demand from age and cohort changes. We find that the age effect decreases both while the cohort effect increases the share of FAFH but decreases that of PF. Over time, the demand for FAFH gradually decreases but remains stable. The demand for PF has been decreasing as of 2010 and more quickly than for FAFH. The reason is that both the age effect and the dynamic population trend decrease the demand for both goods, while the cohort effect slows the decrease in demand for FAFH but accelerates that for PF.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization (JAFIO) is a unique forum for empirical and theoretical research in industrial organization with a special focus on agricultural and food industries worldwide. As concentration, industrialization, and globalization continue to reshape horizontal and vertical relationships within the food supply chain, agricultural economists are revising both their views of traditional markets as well as their tools of analysis. At the core of this revision are strategic interactions between principals and agents, strategic interdependence between rival firms, and strategic trade policy between competing nations, all in a setting plagued by incomplete and/or imperfect information structures. Add to that biotechnology, electronic commerce, as well as the shift in focus from raw agricultural commodities to branded products, and the conclusion is that a "new" agricultural economics is needed for an increasingly complex "new" agriculture.
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