The Infinitely Worried Forest Owner Key Biotopes and Forest Certification in a Faustmann Model

In this note, we consider a case when a forestry property may lose its market value through “political risk”, illustrated here by it being classified as containing a key biotope. If a key biotope is found on a forest property in Sweden, the wood is almost impossible to sell. We show how the Faustmann formula is modified in this case and identify a “balance sheet” effect and document the incentive properties (the “kill an owl, save a logger” effect observed in the Spotted Owl controversy). The theory seems to have some empirical support, given observed changes in bank lending contracts and alleged changes in forester's behavior to reduce the ”political risk.”