F. Scheele, B. Lukovic, J. Moratalla, A. Dunant, N. Horspool
{"title":"新西兰惠灵顿市地震后火灾风险评估","authors":"F. Scheele, B. Lukovic, J. Moratalla, A. Dunant, N. Horspool","doi":"10.5459/bnzsee.55.4.241-256","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Fire following earthquake (FFE) is a significant hazard in urban areas subject to high seismicity. Wellington City has many characteristics that make it susceptible to ignitions and fire spread. These include proximity to major active faults, closely spaced timber-clad buildings, vulnerable water and gas infrastructure, frequent high winds and challenging access for emergency services. We modelled the ignitions, fire spread and suppression for five earthquake sources. Uncertainty in ground motions, the number and location of ignitions, weather conditions and firefighting capacity were accounted for. The mean loss per burn zone (area burnt due to ignition and fire spread) is $46m without fire suppression, indicating the potential property damage avoided by controlling the fire spread. The mean total loss for earthquake scenarios ranges from $0.28b for the Wairau Fault through to $3.17b for a Hikurangi Subduction Zone scenario, including the influence of fire suppression. Wind speed has a strong influence on the potential losses for each simulation and is a more significant factor than the number of ignitions for evaluating losses. Areas in Wellington City of relatively high risk are identified, which may inform risk mitigation strategies. The models may be applied to other urban areas.","PeriodicalId":46396,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimating fire following earthquake risk for Wellington City, New Zealand\",\"authors\":\"F. Scheele, B. Lukovic, J. Moratalla, A. Dunant, N. Horspool\",\"doi\":\"10.5459/bnzsee.55.4.241-256\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Fire following earthquake (FFE) is a significant hazard in urban areas subject to high seismicity. Wellington City has many characteristics that make it susceptible to ignitions and fire spread. These include proximity to major active faults, closely spaced timber-clad buildings, vulnerable water and gas infrastructure, frequent high winds and challenging access for emergency services. We modelled the ignitions, fire spread and suppression for five earthquake sources. Uncertainty in ground motions, the number and location of ignitions, weather conditions and firefighting capacity were accounted for. The mean loss per burn zone (area burnt due to ignition and fire spread) is $46m without fire suppression, indicating the potential property damage avoided by controlling the fire spread. The mean total loss for earthquake scenarios ranges from $0.28b for the Wairau Fault through to $3.17b for a Hikurangi Subduction Zone scenario, including the influence of fire suppression. Wind speed has a strong influence on the potential losses for each simulation and is a more significant factor than the number of ignitions for evaluating losses. Areas in Wellington City of relatively high risk are identified, which may inform risk mitigation strategies. The models may be applied to other urban areas.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46396,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-12-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.55.4.241-256\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.55.4.241-256","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimating fire following earthquake risk for Wellington City, New Zealand
Fire following earthquake (FFE) is a significant hazard in urban areas subject to high seismicity. Wellington City has many characteristics that make it susceptible to ignitions and fire spread. These include proximity to major active faults, closely spaced timber-clad buildings, vulnerable water and gas infrastructure, frequent high winds and challenging access for emergency services. We modelled the ignitions, fire spread and suppression for five earthquake sources. Uncertainty in ground motions, the number and location of ignitions, weather conditions and firefighting capacity were accounted for. The mean loss per burn zone (area burnt due to ignition and fire spread) is $46m without fire suppression, indicating the potential property damage avoided by controlling the fire spread. The mean total loss for earthquake scenarios ranges from $0.28b for the Wairau Fault through to $3.17b for a Hikurangi Subduction Zone scenario, including the influence of fire suppression. Wind speed has a strong influence on the potential losses for each simulation and is a more significant factor than the number of ignitions for evaluating losses. Areas in Wellington City of relatively high risk are identified, which may inform risk mitigation strategies. The models may be applied to other urban areas.