公共债务状况对经济增长的影响:来自尼日利亚的证据

Q3 Social Sciences Public and Municipal Finance Pub Date : 2022-02-18 DOI:10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.02
John O. Aiyedogbon, F. Zhuravka, M. Korneyev, O. Banchuk-Petrosova, O. Kravchenko
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引用次数: 10

摘要

公共债务的过度增加是当今全球经济和金融体系发展的特点。本文旨在考察国家债务对尼日利亚经济增长的短期和长期影响。该模型是使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验方法估计的,用于长期调查的协整。同时,使用不受限制的误差校正模型对同期动力学进行了探索。这些数据来自尼日利亚中央银行的统计公报和年度报告,涵盖了1990年至2020年。这项研究揭示了研究变量之间存在长期联系的证据。此外,研究发现,所有的解释都具有统计学意义。具体而言,经济增长是显著的,对外债变化和偿债变化的负响应分别为0.19%和0.07%,而对国内债务和汇率变化的正响应分别为0.27%和0.18%。因此,该文件建议政府可以考虑更多的国内借款,而不是只有在必要时才可以动用的国外借款。此外,政府还应努力平衡贷款服务和经济可持续性。
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Impact of public debt profile on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria
An excessive increase in public debt characterizes the contemporary development of the global economic and financial system. The paper aims to examine the short- and long-run impact of state debt on economic growth in Nigeria. The model was estimated using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method to co-integration for the long-run investigation. At the same time, the contemporaneous dynamics were explored using an unrestricted error correction model. The data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletins and annual reports, and it spanned the years from 1990 to 2020. The study uncovers evidence of a long-term link between the study variables. In addition, the study finds that all the explanatory is statistically significant. Specifically, economic growth is significant and negatively responsive to changes in external debt by 0.19% and debt servicing by 0.07%, contrary to its positive response to changes in domestic debt and exchange rate by 0.27% and 0.18%, respectively. The paper, therefore, recommends that government may consider more domestic borrowings to foreign borrowings that should only be resorted to when it is indispensable. Moreover, the government should also strive to balance loan servicing and the economic sustainability.
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来源期刊
Public and Municipal Finance
Public and Municipal Finance Business, Management and Accounting-Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
12 weeks
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