在尼日利亚经济中,财政政策和货币政策是相互配合还是相互冲突?

H. O. Eromosele, D. Umoru
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究的目的是确定尼日利亚经济中的财政和货币政策是相互合作还是相互冲突。政府支出和货币存量增长被用来表示财政和货币政策变量。从基础结构模型出发,给出了货币政策和财政政策的两个简化形式方程。这产生了14个RF参数,而不是11个结构参数,因此我们有了过度识别系统。这促使人们使用诸如GMM和3SLS之类的IV估计量。两个估计量的估计结果相似,因为我们发现有证据表明,由于货币政策对财政政策的影响微不足道,财政政策对货币政策的反应并不积极。更重要的是,财政政策并没有对货币政策的滞后效应作出反应。相对而言,货币政策对财政政策的反应是积极的。货币供应量的滞后效应对货币供应量也有显著影响。经验发现表明,尽管货币是所有宏观经济变量不可分割的一部分,但尼日利亚经济在财政上是压倒一切的。财政政策和货币政策滞后效应的显著性,反映出两项政策的实施过程都过于时间遮蔽。因此,需要建立组织良好的财政和货币当局单位,以加快这些政策的实施进程。
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DO FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES COOPERATE OR CONFLICT WITH EACH OTHER IN NIGERIAN ECONOMY?
The determination for this study was to ascertain if fiscal and monetary policies are cooperating or rather conflicting with each other in Nigerian economy. Government disbursement and growth of money stock were used to denote fiscal and monetary policy variables. Two reduced form equations of monetary and fiscal policies were specified from underlying structural model. This yielded fourteen RF parameters in contrast to eleven structural parameters and so we had system of over-identification. These prompted use of IV estimators such as GMM and 3SLS. Estimates show similar findings for both estimators as we found evidence that fiscal policy does not respond favourably to monetary policy as monetary policy was found to have an insignificant effect on the fiscal policy. More so, fiscal policy does not respond to lag effect of monetary policy. Relatively, monetary policy responds favourably to fiscal policy. The lag effect of money supply was also found to have a significant impact on money supply. Empirical finding so upholds that Nigerian economy is fiscally overriding notwithstanding money being an integral part of all macroeconomic variables. Significance of lag effects of both fiscal and monetary policy is reflection that implementation process of both policies is excessively time overshadowing. Consequently, there is need for building well-organized units of fiscal and monetary authorities that can accelerate implementation process of these policies.
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