China's grand strategy for Tajikistan: challenges and threats

ABSTRACT Historically, Central Asia has been at an important geographical cusp wherein different civilizations such as the Indian, Chinese, and Ottoman have competed for their strategic outreach in the region. Its importance has been emphasized by Mackinder in his heartland theory. The vast discoveries of the natural resources in the region, along with the U.S. ‘War on Terror’ and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that passes through the CARs (Central Asian Republics), have reignited the ‘New Great Game.’ Amongst the 5 CARs, the position of Tajikistan is of extreme relevance for China as it paves the way to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and further in Eastern Europe and West Asia. China’s strategic embrace of Tajikistan cannot be missed by the strategic experts, given its access to Xinjiang from the Taliban-dominated Afghanistan, which has led it to establish an anti-terrorism alliance with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan. To increase its influence on Tajikistan, China has utilized a variety of means, including soft power, investments, military help, and training programmes. In this light, the paper will attempt to examine how China rapidly brought Tajikistan under its clout and the economic, social, and strategic consequences for Tajikistan.