Modeling of Transition from Natural Gas to Hybrid Renewable Energy Heating System

Abstract Global energy demand is increased due to industrial development. Currently, fossil fuels, with more than 85%, are the most prominent source of energy in Iran, and their consumption has been raised, but it has destructive impacts on the environment and human health. This study aims to model and techno-economically assess renewable energy heating for replacing natural gas in Qazvin city.  The natural gas domestic demand was quantified, followed by consumption forecasting for 15 years. Six different scenarios were investigated to assess renewables’ potential to meet the city heat demand for the next 15years. The study uncovers that the best practice scenario can reduce natural gas consumption and increase renewable energies share. Finally, the proposed scenario was analyzed economically and environmentally. Results revealed that the return on investment would occur in 3 years by exporting the saved natural gas. Also, Iran can reduce CO2 emissions by about 1 million tons by the year 2029.