The impact of new prison construction on the likelihood of incarceration

Prison overcrowding is a major public policy issue with roughly 2.2 million individuals currently incarcerated in the United States. In the absence of reductions in the prison population, the only way to address overcrowding are the expansion of current facilities or the construction of new prisons. Previous research has demonstrated that factors unrelated to the law can affect the decisions made by prosecutors and judges. We investigate the effect of newly constructed prisons in Florida on the probability of defendants being sentenced to prison within 6 months of the prison receiving inmates. The results reveal that these defendants have a greater likelihood of being incarcerated in prison compared to similar defendants whose cases were resolved before the prison became operational. This indicates the potential for a regional-level substitution between jail and prison incarceration.