Arms Control Dialogue is Japan’s Interest: An Agenda for a New Nuclear Posture Review

ABSTRACT In debates on the Biden administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), the issue that has attracted the most attention in Japan is whether or not the declaratory policy of “no first use” or “sole purpose” of nuclear weapons will be adopted. There is a strong argument in favor of declaratory policies as a method to promote nuclear disarmament. However, it is unlikely that the adoption of a declaratory policy at this time will lead to progress in nuclear disarmament in Northeast Asia. This is because the security environment in the region is undergoing major changes. Force asymmetries, such as the medium-range missile gap between the United States and China, and the pursuit of a deterrent architecture based on entanglement between nuclear, conventional, cyber, and space domains, as well as the rise of emerging technologies that influence the modality of strategic stability, will have a significant impact on deterrence and arms control. Japan is moving toward ensuring the credibility of deterrence within the Japan-US alliance. Under such a circumstance, instead of focusing on declaratory policies to reduce nuclear risks and threats, it is important to establish communication mechanisms among stakeholders in the regional security for crisis management and a multi-layered mechanism to discuss issues of common interest, such as the impact of emerging technologies. Confidence building through these mechanisms for risk management and strategic dialogue provides a foundation for declaratory policies functioning for enhancing nuclear disarmament.