The decline in agricultural share and agricultural industrialization—some stylized facts and theoretical explanations

PurposeThe decline in the share of agriculture in both output and employment is a central feature of structural transformation. The authors present the distinct features between developed and developing countries in the process of agricultural share decline and dig into the real changes that occurred in the agricultural sector during the rapid decline in the agricultural share.Design/methodology/approachTaking the declining share of agriculture as a clue, the authors depict heterogeneous characteristics in the declining share of agriculture in developed and developing countries. Secondly, by criticizing the factor substitution hypothesis, the authors argue that the essence of agricultural transformation is the process of agricultural industrialization characterized by the combination, reconstruction, and continual changes of agricultural production factors. Finally, based on the theory of agricultural industrialization, this paper analyzes the combination of factors in different stages of declining agricultural share in typical economies.FindingsIn this paper, the authors find that the rapid decline in agricultural employment share is accompanied by an increase in the returns to agricultural production in developed economies. In contrast, the decline in agricultural employment share in developing economies lags, and agricultural production efficiency is way much poorer than that of developed economies. Taking the United States and Japan as examples, the authors find that the agricultural sector underwent agricultural industrialization, featured by reconstruction and upgrades of production factors combination.Originality/valueThe authors systematically reveal why huge changes occurred in the agricultural sector in developed economies during structural transformation, and also provide further thoughts and lessons for developing countries to accomplish agricultural modernization.