Identification of China’s strategic transport passages in the context of the Belt and Road initiative

ABSTRACT In compliance with the progress of the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative, there exists a notable and continuous increase in the reliance on maritime and onshore transportation. Therefore, unimpeded transportation has become China’s goal to ensure its security of trade and energy resources. This study proposes a useful framework for the quantitative assessment of key Strategic Transport Passages (STPs) to identify and rank China’s STPs in the context of the B&R. An evaluation hierarchy consisting of general criteria and sub-criteria is developed to evaluate the strategic value of alternative passages. The Evidential Reasoning method is employed to carry out the synthesis process with the Intelligent Decision System software package as it is effective when combining both qualitative and quantitative criteria of a complex nature. Finally, China’s top ten STPs and their ranking are determined by their associated strategic values. The Strait of Hormuz ranks first followed by the Strait of Malacca. Alashankou, located in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China, is the only onshore passage among the top ten STPs. Though the Panama Canal is not involved with the B&R, it is still within the top ten STPs, due to its economic significance.