腐蚀海洋管道结构可靠性评估

IF 1.6 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Australian Journal of Civil Engineering Pub Date : 2020-09-12 DOI:10.1080/14488353.2020.1816639
M. Mahmoodian
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在役石油和天然气钢质管道的故障可能会造成灾难性的环境、社会和经济影响。预防或减轻这些负面影响需要一种方法来预测腐蚀钢管的使用寿命,从而能够实施预防性维护和维修措施。这种预测涉及不确定性,并且随时间变化。本文提出了一种基于时变可靠性的海上腐蚀管道失效评估方法。所提出的方法考虑了管道腐蚀速率和机械特性的不确定性。提出了两种方法:一种是采用蒙特卡罗抽样方法,另一种是基于一阶可靠性方法。然后将该方法应用于位于印度的三条腐蚀的海上天然气管道,并在考虑目标可靠性的情况下估计了时变失效概率。接下来,进行可变性和敏感性分析,以确定对管道失效概率最具影响的不确定性来源。可以断言,腐蚀速率在评估管道结构可靠性方面具有重要作用。
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Structural reliability assessment of corroded offshore pipelines
ABSTRACT Failure of in-service oil and gas steel pipelines can have disastrous environmental, social and economic impacts. Preventing or alleviating those negative impacts requires a methodology to predict the service life of corroded steel pipes that enables implementing preventive maintenance and repairs measures. Such predictions involve uncertainty and vary in time. This paper puts forward a time-variant reliability-based approach to assess the failure of corroded offshore pipelines. The proposed approach accounts for the uncertainty in the corrosion rate and mechanical characteristics of pipes. Two methods are proposed: One that employs the Monte Carlo sampling and one that is based on the first-order reliability method. The methodology is then applied to three corroded offshore gas pipelines located in India and the time-variant failure probability is estimated considering target reliability. Next, variability and sensitivity analyses are conducted to identify the most influential sources of uncertainty on the failure probability of pipelines. It can be asserted that corrosion rate has a substantial role in estimating the structural reliability of pipelines.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
31
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