9/11恐怖袭击前后全球各地区自杀性恐怖主义的比较

IF 0.7 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Journal of Aggression Conflict and Peace Research Pub Date : 2021-08-16 DOI:10.1108/jacpr-06-2021-0604
Ahmet Guler, M. Demir
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的本研究旨在考察9/11恐怖袭击对世界不同地区自杀式恐怖主义的影响,以及9/11前后不同地区自杀式恐怖主义的趋势变化。设计/方法/方法使用1981年至2019年全球恐怖主义数据库的数据,首先计算描述性统计数据,然后进行独立样本t检验,比较9/11之前和9/11之后每个地区发生的自杀性恐怖主义事件的月平均百分比。最后,为了统计评估9/11袭击的影响和因变量随时间变化的趋势,进行了月度中断时间序列分析。调查结果每月中断时间序列分析的结果显示,在9/11袭击之后,南亚、中东和北非以及欧洲三个地区的自杀式恐怖主义发生率趋势显著下降,而撒哈拉以南非洲地区的自杀式恐怖主义发生率趋势显著上升。然而,在9/11之前、2001年11月期间和9/11之后,北美、东亚、中亚和东南亚三个地区的自杀式恐怖主义发生率趋势在统计上没有显著变化。独创性/价值本研究表明了9/11恐怖袭击在自杀式恐怖主义中的关键重要性及其对世界不同地区这些事件的影响。研究还提出了针对自杀式恐怖主义的防御性和进攻性反恐政策的有效性建议。
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A comparison of global suicide terrorism by region before and after 9/11 terrorist attacks
Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on suicide terrorism in different regions of the world and changes in the trends in suicide terrorism according to regions before and after 9/11. Design/methodology/approach Using the data obtained from the Global Terrorism Database from 1981 to 2019, the descriptive statistics were computed first and then, independent samples t-tests were run to compare the monthly mean percentage of suicide-terrorism incidents that occurred in each region between the pre-9/11 and the post-9/11 periods. Finally, to statistically assess the effect of the 9/11 attacks and changes in the trends for the dependent variables over time, monthly interrupted time-series analyzes were conducted. Findings The results of monthly interrupted time series analyzes showed that after the 9/11 attacks, the trends for suicide-terrorism rates decreased significantly in three regions including South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and Europe, while the trend for suicide-terrorism rates increased significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, no statistically significant changes in the trends in suicide-terrorism rates occurred in three regions including North America, East Asia and Central Asia and Southeast Asia before 9/11, during November 2001 or after 9/11. Originality/value This study indicates the critical importance of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in suicide terrorism and its impact on these events in different regions of the world. The research also provides some recommendations concerning the effectiveness of defensive and offensive counterterrorism policies against suicide terrorism.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
32
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