基于风险的奶农奶价模型

W. Septiani, Marimin Marimin, Y. Herdiyeni, L. Haditjaroko
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引用次数: 1

摘要

从合作机构到农民的牛奶价格并不能完全覆盖生产成本。然而,奶农在经营过程中会遇到各种风险和不确定性。牛奶供应的最高风险在于农场的活动。本研究旨在建立基于风险的奶农奶价计算模型。发生在农场的风险包括奶牛繁殖、卫生、保健、牛饲料管理、挤奶和牛奶销售的风险。本研究使用了西爪哇地区农场的位置。该模型的编制主要分为五个阶段,即:(1)影响因素的识别与分析;(2)概念模型的建立;(3)生产成本的结构分析与数量分析;(4)考虑风险因素的生产成本模型计算;(5)基于风险的牛奶定价模型。本研究建立了小农奶牛场风险与奶农生产成本之间的关系。得到了奶牛养殖场可变生产成本的风险调整系数计算公式。有风险的生产成本与无风险的总生产成本之差约为8%至10%。可以得出结论,基于本研究提出的3 ~ 4头奶牛的牛奶基本价格在4250 ~ 4350印尼盾/升左右。通过在生产成本的计算中加入这种风险的价值,农民的收入有望增加。
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Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level
The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1) identification and analysis of influential factors, (2) development of a conceptual model, (3) structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4) model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5) risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs.
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