基础设施项目的成本超支和延误:以斯图加特21为例

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Property Investment & Finance Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI:10.1108/jpif-11-2019-0144
Bertram I. Steininger, M. Groth, Brigitte Weber
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引用次数: 11

摘要

基础设施项目的成本超支和延误不是最近的问题。随着时间的推移,它们在全球、不同部门有系统地发生。我们发现,各种原因与斯图加特21号的成本超支和延误有关,斯图加特21号是德国过去100年来最大的铁路项目之一。其中包括项目范围变化、地质条件、高风险倾向、延期实施、价格超调、利益冲突和缺乏公民参与。为了在早期阶段估计成本,我们应用参考类预测模型,从而在置信区间内预测当前估计的成本。为了估计时间,我们对不同的小节应用OLS回归,并低估或大大高估了实际需要的持续时间。
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Cost overruns and delays in infrastructure projects: the case of Stuttgart 21
Cost overruns and delays in infrastructure projects are not a recent problem. They have systematically occurred globally, in different sectors, and over time. We find that various causes are relevant for the cost overrun and delay of Stuttgart 21 – one of the largest railway projects in Germany in the last 100 years. Among them are project scope changes, geological conditions, high risk-taking propensity, extended implementation, price overshoot, conflict of interests, and lack of citizens’ participation. To estimate the costs at an early stage, we apply the reference class forecasting model and thereby forecast the current estimated costs within a confidence interval. To estimate the time, we apply an OLS regression for the different subsections and underestimate or substantially overestimate the duration actually required.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
33
期刊介绍: Fully refereed papers on practice and methodology in the UK, continental Western Europe, emerging markets of Eastern Europe, China, Australasia, Africa and the USA, in the following areas: ■Academic papers on the latest research, thinking and developments ■Law reports assessing new legislation ■Market data for a comprehensive review of current research ■Practice papers - a forum for the exchange of ideas and experiences
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