Strategic calculations? Partisan differences in support for Puerto Rican migration to the mainland USA

Building on research about political determinants of migration attitudes, this study examines whether public opinion is influenced by the potential political participation of migrants themselves. We use the opportunity presented by the recent increase in the number of US citizens moving from Puerto Rico to the mainland to investigate how partisanship and political calculations shape attitudes toward their migration. Using data from an online survey experiment in early 2020, we find partisan differences in support for Puerto Rican migration. Democrats were significantly more likely than Republicans and independents to support Puerto Rican migration to the mainland in the aftermath of recent natural disasters, while Republicans were more likely to support Puerto Ricans returning home for the rebuilding process. The partisan divide was exacerbated when respondents were given additional information about the voting eligibility of Puerto Ricans and the possibility that their votes could help a Democratic presidential candidate win the state of Florida in the 2020 election. Specifically, Republicans who received this information were significantly less likely than all other respondents, including Republicans in the control group, to support Puerto Rican migration to the mainland USA. Findings on several related variables also show significant partisan differences, though treatment effects are less pronounced. Although further research is necessary to determine whether similar patterns hold in situations where migrants are not immediately eligible to vote or perceived as supporting one side, this study provides initial evidence that strategic partisan calculations can influence attitudes toward migration in a competitive political context.