大萧条会在21世纪重演吗?

M. Ismail, Quah Chee Heong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

到2031年,将是大萧条发生的一个世纪,大萧条被吹捧为美国和世界其他地区历史上最可怕的萧条。在上世纪最后几十年和本世纪初,发生了许多金融危机和经济萧条,但没有大萧条那么严重,特别是但不限于发展中国家。看看大萧条和今天的安排,一场重大的全球大萧条会迫在眉睫吗?本文首先回顾了大萧条的事件,然后是弗里德曼和施瓦茨的假设,对该假设的批评,对大萧条的其他影响因素,对理论的调和,最后以基于今天的经济,金融,政治,社会和技术考虑的21世纪大萧条回归的可能性的评估结束。
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Could the Great Depression Repeat Itself in the 21St Century?
By 2031, it will be a century since the Great Depression, touted as the most dreadful depression in the history of U.S. and the rest of the world, had taken place. In the final decades of last century and in the early years of this century, numerous financial crises and economic depressions, not as severe as the Depression, have occurred, particularly but not limited to, developing countries. Looking at the Depression and today’s arrangements, will a major global depression be looming? This paper begins with a refresher on the events of the Depression, which is followed by the Friedman and Schwartz hypothesis, criticisms against it, other contributing factors to the Depression, a reconciliation of the theories and finally ends with an assessment of the possibility of a return of the Depression in the 21st century based on today’s economic, financial, political, social, and technological considerations.  
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