Julien Arino, khalid el hail, M. Khaladi, A. Ouhinou
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A model for the early COVID-19 outbreak in China with case detection and behavioural change
We investigate a model of the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic comprising undetected infected individuals as well as behavioural change towards the use of self-protection measures. The model is fitted to China data reported between 22 January and 29 June 2020. Using fitting results, we then consider model responses to varying screening intensities.