气候变化的本质——自然的提供和人类的必要条件

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Frontiers in Climate Pub Date : 2023-07-10 DOI:10.3389/fclim.2023.1207872
T. Anderl
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化被分解为驱动因素,从而可以长期预测自然和经济影响。因此,如果从现在起每年减少2%的碳排放,大气中的二氧化碳浓度预计将在大约1000年后恢复到工业化前的水平,到那时,温度和海平面将在1°C时上升到大约峰值,比现在的水平高出5米,由此带来的经济负担将增长到当前全球国内生产总值的1.4%。预计通过成本中性可以实现90%的减排。为了利用潜在的可承受影响,人类有义务在不久的将来满足某些先决条件:(一)全球二氧化碳排放量必须至少每年减少2%;(ii)经济增长可能不会继续危害减排工作,迄今为止,排放量每年增长1.7%;(iii)由于经济相互联系,必须建立监管措施的全球一致性,建议从相当大的一组国家开始,规则包括对非参与者的经济惩罚。所提出的见解与改变社会决策模式的潜力有关。
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Climate change through the essentials–nature's offering and humankind's sine qua non
Climate change is decomposed into the driving terms allowing long-term projection of the natural and economic impacts. As a result, in the case of carbon emissions reduction by 2% per year from the present, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to return to preindustrial values in about 1,000 years, temperature and sea level rise to approximately peak at 1°C and 5 m above the present levels by then, and the entailed economic burden to grow to 1.4% of the current global gross domestic product. Ninety percent of the required emissions reduction are anticipated achievable through cost neutrality. To take advantage of the potentially bearable impact, humankind is obliged to fulfill certain prerequisites near-time: (i) CO2 emissions reduction must be at least 2%/year at global level; (ii) economic growth may not continue to jeopardize emissions reduction efforts, thus far contributing with an emissions rise of 1.7%/year; (iii) due to the economic interlinkage, global coherence of regulatory measures must be established, proposedly commencing with a sizable group of countries, the rules comprising economic penalization of non-participants. The presented insight is associated with the potential to alter the social decision mode.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊最新文献
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