{"title":"“让曲线变平!”但是哪条曲线呢?","authors":"É. Brian","doi":"10.4000/histoiremesure.13544","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article considers a phrase commonly found in the COVID-19 literature: “flatten the curve”. It examines the historical evolution of two centuries of statistical reasoning on the dispersion of uncertainty. Earlier extrapolations of Gaussian distributions are discussed, and statistical modelling of this type, based on misleading a priori assumptions, is analysed. Some rigorous alternatives are proposed for computation and recommendation purposes.","PeriodicalId":39718,"journal":{"name":"Histoire et Mesure","volume":"1 1","pages":"233-246"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"“Flatten the Curve!” But Which Curve?\",\"authors\":\"É. Brian\",\"doi\":\"10.4000/histoiremesure.13544\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This article considers a phrase commonly found in the COVID-19 literature: “flatten the curve”. It examines the historical evolution of two centuries of statistical reasoning on the dispersion of uncertainty. Earlier extrapolations of Gaussian distributions are discussed, and statistical modelling of this type, based on misleading a priori assumptions, is analysed. Some rigorous alternatives are proposed for computation and recommendation purposes.\",\"PeriodicalId\":39718,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Histoire et Mesure\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"233-246\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-12-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Histoire et Mesure\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4000/histoiremesure.13544\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Arts and Humanities\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Histoire et Mesure","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4000/histoiremesure.13544","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Arts and Humanities","Score":null,"Total":0}
This article considers a phrase commonly found in the COVID-19 literature: “flatten the curve”. It examines the historical evolution of two centuries of statistical reasoning on the dispersion of uncertainty. Earlier extrapolations of Gaussian distributions are discussed, and statistical modelling of this type, based on misleading a priori assumptions, is analysed. Some rigorous alternatives are proposed for computation and recommendation purposes.
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