如何理解冲突的结束?从扎特曼理论和“三维”视角解读理论语境

Nelson Cano-Holguín, Javier Jiménez-Osorio
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引用次数: 0

摘要

基于每一场武装冲突都有不同起源的假设,冲突的结束意味着敌对活动的停止和和平进程的开始。然而,承认陷入冲突的各方何时有谈判意愿是一个需要理解的复杂问题。从这个意义上说,本文阐述了扎尔特曼的成熟理论,以增进对各方走到一起解决冲突所需要素的理解。这篇文章的新颖之处在于,它以冲突结束的三维视角,即军事、政治和经济维度,补充了这样一个理论。在文献综述的基础上,主要结论与通过Zartman成熟理论提供对冲突的理解的可能性有关;然而,这仍然有局限性,因为这样一个成熟的时刻并不能保证冲突会得到解决,也不能在到达那个时刻之前对它进行观察,但只有在它过去之后才能观察到它,从而引发新的调查,深入这些差距。
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How to Understand the End of Conflict? Addressing a Theoretical Context from Zartman’s Theory and a “Three-Dimensional” View
Based on the assumption that each armed conflict has different origins, the end of the conflict corresponds to a cessation of hostile activities and the beginning of a peace process. However, recognizing when the parties immersed in a conflict have the will to negotiate is a complex issue to understand. In this sense, this article addresses Zartman’s theory of maturation to increase the understanding of the elements necessary for the parties to come together and resolve their conflicts. The novelty of this article is that it complements such a theory with a three-dimensional vision of the end of the conflict, that is, military, political and economic dimensions. Based on a bibliographic review, the main conclusion is linked to the possibility of providing the understanding of conflicts with some arguments through the theory of Zartman’s ripening; however, this still has limitations in the sense that such a moment of ripening does not guarantee that the conflict will be solved, nor does it offer a look at it before reaching that moment, but it is possible to observe it only after it passes, giving rise to new investigations that go deeper into those gaps.
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