Effect of indigenous and scientific forecasts on pastoralists’ climate change perceptions in the Rwenzori region, Western Uganda

ABSTRACT This study investigated the effect of climate information on the climate change perceptions of pastoralists in the Rwenzori region, Western Uganda. Data on socio-economic characteristics, climate risk perceptions, use of indigenous knowledge-based forecasts (IFs) and scientific knowledge-based forecasts (SFs) were collected from 269 pastoralists using household surveys. The findings indicated that pastoralists using IFs only were more likely to perceive flood increase. Pastoralists using both IF and SF were more likely to perceive temperature increase, flood increase and drought increase. Apart from climate forecasts, other factors of significance included gender, education level, social capital, herd size, farm size, access to hired labour, herd mobility, agricultural extension access, access to government programmes on climate change and dissemination channels of climate change information. Pastoralists tend to put more attention on climate risks that are less likely to happen and less attention on events that are more likely to happen. Cognitive factors like education level can overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities of climate risk perceptions. Stakeholder engagement in rain-gauge management for on-farm rainfall generation and co-production of climate services can enhance climate change perceptions of pastoralists resulting in a reduction in vulnerability to climate change. Increasing the rain-gauge network in pastoral areas could promote more scientific perceptions of climate change.