Social Disorganization and Urban Homicide Rates: A Spatial-Temporal Analysis in São Paulo, Brazil 2000 to 2015

This study aims to contribute to understanding urban spatial and temporal patterns of social disorganization and homicide rates in São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2015). Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial panel regression techniques, we describe spatial-temporal patterns of homicide rates and assess to what extent social disorganization can explain between-district variation in homicide trajectories. The results showed some variation in the pattern of homicide decline across districts, and less disorganized communities experienced earlier, more linear declines. However, we found no evidence to suggest that changes in social disorganization are associated with differences in the decline in homicide rates.