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引用次数: 7
摘要
本文提供了经验丰富的专业人员在战略互动中理性忽视的证据。我们将理性的不注意加入到一场将便士与依赖国家的收益相匹配的游戏中。与全信息混合策略纳什均衡不同,不同行为的收益不需要逐个状态地等同。此外,玩家对收益差异做出部分反应,当注意力成本较低时,这种反应更强,当赌注增加时,策略收敛于全信息纳什,所有状态下的平均收益在行动中大致相等。我们使用来自美国职业棒球大联盟(Major League Baseball)的数百万个球场的数据来测试这些预测,在那里我们观察了策略、回报和注意力成本的代理。(jel c72, d83, d91, l83, z21)
This paper provides evidence of rational inattention by experienced professionals in strategic interactions. We add rational inattention to a game of matching pennies with state-dependent payoffs. Unlike the full-information, mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium, payoffs of different actions need not be equated state by state. Moreover, players respond partially to payoff differences, this responsiveness is stronger when attention costs are lower, strategies converge to full-information Nash as stakes increase, and average payoffs across all states are approximately equal across actions. We test these predictions using data on millions of pitches from Major League Baseball, where we observe strategies, payoffs, and proxies for attention costs. (JEL C72, D83, D91, L83, Z21)