Determination of the Optimal Algorithm for the Operation of a Hybrid Power System with a Regulating Generator

The purpose of the article is to study the possibilities of preventing the imbalance caused by the stochastic nature of RES by regulating the electricity accumulation and the backup generator. The subject of the research is random processes of energy generation and consumption. The goal is achieved by a mathematical model construction in which the system parameters would be formalized and allow the choice of optimal options. The mathematical model uses random functions to obtain statistical estimates, and is implemented as sequential models of energy generation and consumption as an integrated random process. The models’ adequacy is confirmed by comparing the simulated and real indicators for a number of existing RES in Ukraine. The proposed approach made it possible to establish the presence of system parameters that minimize energy losses and consumption, reduce the probability of energy imbalance, and effectively use the reserve power. The proposed mathematical model allows determining the probability of various system states, it estimates the reliability of energy supply, and minimizes losses at the stages of designing a power system and planning its operating modes. The above estimates are typical for certain climatic conditions and modes of energy consumption, and are of a specific nature. The significance of the work lies in the fact that the proposed formulation of the problem makes it possible to adapt the mathematical model to various conditions, to find implicit dependencies between the technical parameters of the system and its indicators in order to find optimal solutions.