核武器的魔法史

Q2 Social Sciences Nonproliferation Review Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI:10.1080/10736700.2022.2097703
Š. Ganguly
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在对日本使用核武器后,美国著名战略家伯纳德·布罗迪(Bernard Brodie)有先见之明地写道:“迄今为止,我们军事机构的主要目的一直是赢得战争。从现在起,它的主要目的必须是避免它们。”从那时起,这一关键主张就构成了核威慑的基础。尽管布罗迪有这样的基本见解,但许多美国战略家和政策制定者仍计划在威慑失败的情况下使用核武器。为此,他们就美国核力量的适当配置进行了无休止的辩论,以确保威慑占上风,如果没有,美国将战胜其主要的核武装对手苏联。早期的著作涵盖了核时代的大部分历史。麦克乔治·邦迪的巨著《危险与生存:前五十年关于原子弹的选择》不仅论述了美苏核竞争,还简要介绍了其他国家后来获得核武器的情况。除了这段核时代的历史,历史学家格雷格·赫肯(Gregg Herken)在《战争顾问》(counsel of War)一书中详述了从核时代的起源到冷战的高潮,众多科学家、学者和分析人士塑造了美国的核战略。在赫肯的书出版前不久,弗雷德·卡普兰(Fred Kaplan)出版了一本类似的书——《世界末日的巫师》(the Wizards of Armageddon)。卡普兰的新书《炸弹:总统、将军和核战争的秘史》也必然涉及了一些相同的内容。在他以前的作品中出现过的许多人物在这本书中又出现了。然而,这本新书的主要焦点是美国核战略的演变。这本书更明确地讨论了特定核武器系统发展背后的辩论、争论和官僚政治,以及部署和可能使用核武器的战略。卡普兰对历史、政治和技术细节的掌握是非凡的。他提供了对关键人物、具体转折点和重要时代的详细而细致的描述。在这方面,这本书明显不同于劳伦斯·弗里德曼的权威著作《核战略的演变》,后者是对核思维进程的学术考察。卡普兰的书首先讨论了美国获得核力量的计划。正如卡普兰所描述的那样,在第二次世界大战结束后不久,第一颗原子弹投入使用,早期阶段包括在各个军事组织之间拖拽。令人着迷的是,在一开始,海军和陆军都不是特别的
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A Wizardly History of Nuclear Weapons
After the use of nuclear weapons against Japan, the eminent American strategist Bernard Brodie presciently wrote, “Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now its chief purpose must be to avert them.” Ever since then, this key proposition has formed the basis of nuclear deterrence. Despite Brodie’s fundamental insight, a range of American strategists and policy makers nevertheless planned on the use of nuclear weapons in the event that deterrence failed. To that end, they engaged in endless debates about the appropriate configuration of American nuclear forces to ensure both that deterrence would prevail and that, if it did not, the United States would prevail over its principal nuclear-armed adversary, the Soviet Union. Much of the history of the nuclear age has been covered in earlier works. McGeorge Bundy’s masterful account, Danger and Survival: Choices About the Bomb in the First Fifty Years, not only dealt with the US–Soviet nuclear rivalry but also provided capsule accounts of various other states that went on to acquire nuclear weapons. Beyond this history of the nuclear age, the historian Gregg Herken, in Counsels of War, dwelt on the plethora of scientists, scholars, and analysts who shaped American nuclear strategy from the genesis of the nuclear age to the heights of the Cold War. Shortly before the publication of Herken’s book, Fred Kaplan had published a similar volume, The Wizards of Armageddon. Of necessity, Kaplan’s new work, The Bomb: Presidents, Generals and the Secret History of Nuclear War, covers some of the same ground. Many of the same characters who had populated his previous work turn up again in the present book. However, the principal focus of the newer volume is the evolution of American nuclear strategy. The book deals much more explicitly with the debates, arguments, and bureaucratic politics underlying the development of particular nuclear-weapons systems and the strategies for their deployment and possible use. Kaplan’s mastery of the particulars of the history, politics, and technologies is extraordinary. He provides detailed and granular accounts of key personalities, specific turning points, and important epochs. In this regard, the book is markedly different from Lawrence Freedman’s magisterial work The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, which is an academic examination of the progression of nuclear thinking. Kaplan’s book begins with a discussion of the US plans to acquire a nuclear force. As Kaplan describes it, the early stages involved hauling and pulling between various military organizations shortly after the use of the first atomic bombs at the end of World War II. It is fascinating to learn that, at the outset, neither the Navy nor the Army was especially
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来源期刊
Nonproliferation Review
Nonproliferation Review Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations
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0.70
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13
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