海洋大陆与太平洋十年振荡相关的降水制度变化

V. Kokorev, J. Ettema, P. Siegmund, G. Schrier
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引用次数: 1

摘要

最近东南亚降水状况的变化是一个正在进行讨论的主题。在这篇文章中,首次证明了1970年代中期东南亚北半球地区降水变化的证据。通过使用一个新的综合日降水记录数据集(东南亚气候评估和数据集)和应用一种新的贝叶斯方法来检测状态转移,可以检测到状态转移。更具体地说,在一些地区,干旱天数的频率增加了10%。然而,在观测到干旱日数逐渐增加的南半球地区(爪哇和澳大利亚北部),没有发现降水变化。
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Precipitation Regime Shift Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Maritime Continent
Recent changes in precipitation regime in South-East Asia are a subject of ongoing discussion. In this article, for the first time, evidence of a precipitation regime shift during the mid-1970s in the Northern Hemispheric part of South-East Asia is demonstrated. The detection of regime shifts is made possible by using a new comprehensive dataset of daily precipitation records (South-East Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset) and applying a novel Bayesian approach for regime shift detection. After the detected regime shift event in the mid-1970s, significant changes in precipitation distribution occurred in the Northern Hemispheric regions—Indochina Peninsula and the Philippines. More specifically, dry days became up to 10% more frequent in some regions. However, no precipitation regime shift is detected in Southern Hemisphere regions—Java and Northern Australia, were the number of observed dry days increased gradually.
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