埃塞俄比亚Awi地区Fogera养牛户对气候变化和变异性的看法

M. Abera, Y. Mummed, Mitiku Eshetu, F. Pilla, Z. Wondifraw
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引用次数: 5

摘要

本研究旨在评估福格拉养牛户对Awi地区选定地区气候变化和可变性的看法。根据海拔变化,该地区被归类为低地(2500 m.a.s.l),通过随机抽样,共选择了三个地区,每个集群一个。通过针对福格拉牛主人的系统随机抽样,选择了150户家庭进行初步数据收集。超过36年(从1983年到2019年)的气象数据来自国家气象局。气象数据结果证实,所有农业生态区的气候都在变化。所有农业生态区的年平均最高温度和最低温度都显著增加,而年平均降雨量却在减少,这与农民的看法一致。气象数据结果还表明,短雨季和旱季的降雨量表明,所有农业生态区的年际变化都很高。调查结果显示,97.13%的农民认识到所有农业生态区的气候变化和变异性影响。大约80.91%的福格拉养牛户报告了气候变化和变异性对牛的负面影响。调查结果的卡方检验值显示,在所有农业生态区,干旱频率、干旱持续时间、风和洪水都在增加(p<0.001)。此外,在低地、中部和高地拥有福格拉牛的农民中,分别约84.48%、65.3%和60.47%的人感知到牛死亡率增加的普遍性(p<0.01)。为了应对气候变化和可变性,农民们正在减少牲畜数量,使牲畜物种多样化,并用小型反刍动物取代福格拉牛作为适应策略。因此,定期预测气候变化和可变性,并制定相关的应对策略,对于减少气候变化的不利影响,提高研究地区福格拉养牛户的恢复能力至关重要。
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Perception of Fogera Cattle Farmers on Climate Change and Variability in Awi Zone, Ethiopia
This study aimed at assessing perception of Fogera cattle farmers on climate change and variability in selected districts of Awi zone. The zone was classified as lowland (2500 m.a.s.l) based on altitudinal variation from which a total of three districts one per cluster were selected through random sampling. 150 households were selected through systematic random sampling targeting Fogera cattle owners for primary data collection. Over 36 years (from 1983-2019) of meteorological data were taken from the National Meteorological Agency. Meteorological data result confirmed that climate was changing across all the agro-ecological zones. Both the mean annual maximum and minimum temperature was considerably increasing for all agro-ecological zones whereas the mean annual rainfall was decreasing which is consistent with the farmers’ perception. Meteorological data result also showed that the short rainy and dry season rainfall indicated high interannual variability at all agro-ecological zones. Survey result revealed that 97.13% of the farmers recognized climate change and variability impact in all agro-ecological zones. About 80.91% of Fogera cattle farmers reported the incidence of negative impacts of climate change and variability on cattle. Chi-square test values of survey results show that in all agro-ecological zones frequency of drought, duration of dry spell, wind, and floods were ever-increasing (p < 0.001). Moreover, about 84.48%, 65.3%, and 60.47% of farmers owning Fogera cattle in the lowland, midland, and highland, respectively perceived the prevalence of increasing (p < 0.001) cattle mortality. In response to climate change and variability, farmers were reducing number of livestock, diversification of livestock species, and replacing Fogera cattle with small ruminants as adaptation strategies. Thus, regular prediction of climate change and variability and designing pertinent response strategies is essential to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change for enhancing resilience capacity of the Fogera cattle farmers in the study areas.
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