数字组织的统计可持续性

Vladimir I. Ananyin, Konstantin V. Zimin, M. Lugachev, R. Gimranov
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引用次数: 1

摘要

数字化组织的一个重要特征是其快速变化的能力。一个组织要想保持快速变革的能力,就必须处于韧性的边缘,因为一个有韧性的组织总是抵制变革。本文考察了处于稳定和不稳定边缘的组织的边界状态。在这种状态下,组织开始失去行为细节的可预测性,但总体上仍保持可预测性。作者将这种临界状态称为组织的统计可持续性。一个组织的统计可持续性现象与数理统计中用类似术语描述的群体事件频率和平均值的稳定性非常相似。为了分析组织统计可持续性的本质,作者运用了复杂系统理论中的奇异吸引子和模式的思想。奇怪的吸引器是组织行为的一个区域,在这个区域之外,是组织的稳定区域,而在它内部,是一个完全不可预测的区域。复杂系统理论表明,正是在奇异吸引子区域创造了系统可变性的条件,而模式加重理论表明了这种可变性可以导致自组织的条件,即新结构的自发出现。本文表明,系统数字化客观上导致了组织统计可持续性的形成,并为保持组织快速变化的能力创造了先决条件。在传统管理中,一个组织的统计可持续性被视为一种威胁和风险来源。因此,在系统数字化的背景下,传统的管理方法应该得到显著的改进。
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Statistical sustainability of a digital organization
An important feature of a digital organization is its ability to change rapidly. For an organization to remain capable of rapid change, it must be on the brink of resilience, since a resilient organization always resists change. The article examines the borderline state of the organization, which is on the verge of its stability and instability. In this state, the organization begins to lose predictability in the details of behavior, but still retains predictability in general. The authors called this borderline state the statistical sustainability of the organization. The phenomenon of statistical sustainability of an organization is very similar to the property of stability of the frequency of mass events and average values described in mathematical statistics by a similar term. To analyze the nature of the statistical sustainability of the organization, the authors used the ideas of strange attractors and modes with sharpening from the theory of complex systems. A strange attractor is an area of the organization’s behavior that, outside this area, is an area of stability for the organization, and inside it is an area of complete unpredictability. The theory of complex systems has shown that it is in the regions of strange attractors that the conditions for the variability of systems are created, and the theory of modes with aggravation shows the conditions under which this variability can lead to self-organization, that is, the spontaneous emergence of new structures. This article shows that systematic digitalization objectively leads to the formation of the statistical sustainability of the organization and creates the preconditions for maintaining the organization’s ability to make rapid changes. In traditional management, the statistical sustainability of an organization is viewed as a threat and a source of risk. Therefore, in the context of systematic digitalization, traditional approaches to management should be significantly refined.
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