制度环境对风险评估的影响

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS Central European Business Review Pub Date : 2021-10-31 DOI:10.18267/j.cebr.288
D. Steinhauser, Z. Borovská
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是探讨被研究国家的制度环境与科法斯国家风险评估之间的关系。为了达到这一目标,我们采用了描述性和回归分析形式的定量方法。结果是对选定国家的实际科法斯国家风险评估及其价值预测的评价。作者利用传统经济自由指数对主要私营保险公司科法斯(Coface)风险评估指标的子指数量化了制度环境的影响,该指标在科学领域不常使用,并定期更新。结果表明,科法斯国家风险评估与政府诚信、财政健康、财务自由和产权之间存在正相关关系。虽然税负是一个统计上显著的因素,但其参数被检测到一个意外的符号。因此,作者对其进行了抽象。政府支出、商业自由、货币自由、贸易自由和投资自由等分项指标在统计上不显著。控制变量公共债务占国内生产总值(gdp)的比例也微不足道。对中欧读者的启示:本文采用科法斯国家风险评估,迄今为止在科学文献中很少使用。我们展示了中欧国家的当前和预测价值,以及从他们的角度来看,由于贸易和投资机会,这些国家也很有趣。包括中欧在内的许多国家的实际值和预测值之间存在差异。
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The Impact of Institutional Environment on Risk Assessment
The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the institutional environment of the studied countries and the Coface Country Risk Assessment. To meet this object, we used quantitative methods in the form of descriptive and regression analysis. The result was an evaluation of the actual Coface Country Risk Assessment and its value prediction for chosen countries. The authors quantified the impact of the institutional environment using The Heritage Index of Economic Freedom subindexes on the risk assessment indicator of the major private insurance company Coface, which is not so often used in the scientific sphere and is regularly updated. The results suggest a positive correlation between the Coface Country Risk Assessment and Government Integrity, Fiscal Health, Financial Freedom and Property Rights. Although Tax Burden is a statistically significant factor, its parameter was detected with an unexpected sign. For this reason, authors abstracted from it. Subindexes Government Spending, Business Freedom, Monetary Freedom, Trade Freedom, and Investment Freedom were statistically insignificant. Control variable Public Debt as a share of gross domestic product was insignificant as well. Implications for Central European audience: The article applies the Coface Country Risk Assessment, which has so far been rarely used in the scientific literature. We present the current and predicted values of the Central European Countries, but also the countries interesting from their point of view due to trade and investment opportunities. Many countries, including those in Central Europe, show differences between actual and predicted values.
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来源期刊
Central European Business Review
Central European Business Review Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
7.70%
发文量
27
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