金砖国家经济:评估经济政策不确定性和财政整顿对政府债务和经济增长的影响

IF 1.3 Q1 AREA STUDIES Millennial Asia Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI:10.1177/09763996231184569

E. M. Buthelezi

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文研究了经济政策不确定性(EPU)和财政整顿对金砖国家政府债务占GDP和GDP比例的影响。采用2009 - 2022年的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型。本文深入分析了金砖国家的货币汇率、财政整顿和政府债务占GDP的比例与GDP之间的关系，然后是文献中主要进行的发达经济体。本文的研究结果表明，从短期和长期来看，EPU对政府债务占GDP比重的影响都不显著。然而，从长远来看，财政整顿对降低政府债务占GDP的比例有重大影响。就GDP而言，EPU在长期内具有显著的负面影响，但在短期内没有。财政整顿在短期内对GDP有显著的积极影响。财政整顿被推荐为一种不会降低政府债务占GDP比重的增长政策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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BRICS Economies: Assessing the Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Fiscal Consolidation on Government Debt and Economic Growth

This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and fiscal consolidation on government debt share to GDP and GDP in BRICS countries. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 2009 to 2022. The article gives insights into the relationship between EPU, fiscal consolidation and government debt share to GDP with the GDP in the BRICS countries, then advance economies which are mostly undertaken in literature. The findings of the article are that EPU has an insignificant impact on government debt share to GDP in the short and long run. However, fiscal consolidation has a significant impact on reducing government debt share to GDP in the long run. In terms of GDP, EPU has a significant negative impact in the long run but not in the short run. Fiscal consolidation has a significant positive impact on GDP in the short run. Fiscal consolidation is recommended as a growth policy that does not reduce government debt share to GDP.

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来源期刊

Millennial Asia AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Millennial Asia: An International Journal of Asian Studies is a multidisciplinary, refereed biannual journal of the Association of Asia Scholars (AAS)–an association of the alumni of the Asian Scholarship Foundation (ASF). It aims to encourage multifaceted, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research on Asia, in order to understand its fast changing context as a growth pole of global economy. By providing a forum for Asian scholars situated globally, it promotes dialogue between the global academic community, civil society and policy makers on Asian issues. The journal examines Asia on a regional and comparative basis, emphasizing patterns and tendencies that go beyond national borders and are globally relevant. Modern and contemporary Asia has witnessed dynamic transformations in cultures, societies, economies and political institutions, among others. It confronts issues of collective identity formation, ecological crisis, rapid economic change and resurgence of religion and communal identifies while embracing globalization. An analysis of past experiences can help produce a deeper understanding of contemporary change. In particular, the journal is interested in locating contemporary changes within a historical perspective, through the use of interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches. This way, it hopes to promote comparative studies involving Asia’s various regions. The journal brings out both thematic and general issues and the thrust areas are: Asian integration, Asian economies, sociology, culture, politics, governance, security, development issues, arts and literature and any other such issue as the editorial board may deem fit. The core fields include development encompassing agriculture, industry, regional trade, social sectors like health and education and development policy across the region and in specific countries in a comparative perspective.