夏季复合干热极端事件使重庆地区火灾天气风险和烧伤面积超过历史阈值

IF 3 3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY Fire-Switzerland Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI:10.3390/fire6090346
Lucas Gutiérrez Rodríguez, Yingpeng He, Mengqi Sun, Yinan Yao, Víctor Resco de Dios
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球变暖与复合干热事件(CDHEs)的增加有关,导致mesic森林中更大和更极端的火灾天气风险。历史上,受季风降水影响,中国亚热带地区的野火活动仅限于冬季干燥,夏季多雨罕见。在这里,我们试图测试该地区是否处于火灾状态发生重大变化的边缘,其特征是火灾季节更长,持续到夏季,导致火灾活动(燃烧面积)增加。我们分析了重庆市(46,890平方公里)的火灾活动,这是中国亚热带重要的区域,承载着三峡库区。我们观察到,在异常的夏季干热条件下,夏季森林火灾显著增加,其中总燃烧面积是历史年平均水平的3-6倍(以前仅限于冬季)。蒸汽压差(VPD)是干热天气条件(即火灾天气风险)的一个指标,是火灾活动的一个强有力的预测指标,在VPD高于3.5 kPa的日子发生较大的野火。结果表明,除非实施强有力的防火和地方适应政策,否则由于气候变化和火灾天气风险时间窗的扩大,该地区可能会发生重大的野火活动扩张。
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Summer Compound Drought-Heat Extremes Amplify Fire-Weather Risk and Burned Area beyond Historical Thresholds in Chongqing Region, Subtropical China
Global warming is associated with an increase in compound drought-heat events (CDHEs), leading to larger and more extreme fire-weather risk in mesic forests. Wildfire activity in subtropical China, under the influence of monsoonal rainfall, was historically limited to dry winters and rare in rainy summers. Here, we seek to test whether this area is on the brink of a major change in its fire regime characterized by larger fire seasons, extending into the summer, leading to increases in fire activity (burned area). We analyze fire activity in Chongqing Municipality (46,890 km2), an important area of subtropical China hosting the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. We observed significant increases in summer forest fires under anomalous dry-hot summer conditions, where the total burned area was 3–6 times the historical annual mean (previously confined to the winter season). Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an indicator of hot and dry weather conditions (i.e., fire-weather risk), was a strong predictor of fire activity, with larger wildfires occurring on days where VPD was higher than 3.5 kPa. Results indicate that a major wildfire activity expansion may occur in the area due to climate change and the widening time window of fire-weather risk, unless strong fire prevention and local adaptation policies are implemented.
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来源期刊
Fire-Switzerland
Fire-Switzerland Multiple-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
15.60%
发文量
182
审稿时长
11 weeks
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