埃塞俄比亚时空气候变化与自然保护的复原力

A. Reda
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摘要

世界银行(2006年)断言,降雨变化使埃塞俄比亚经济损失了其潜在增长率的38%。由于夏季和冬季的单位温度升高,每公顷净收入将分别减少177.62美元和464.71美元。因此,气候变化对埃塞俄比亚经济构成了威胁。埃塞俄比亚减少气候变化的广泛影响的现有选择是制定适应能力的缓解战略。脆弱性是地方性的,需要针对具体地点采取适应和缓解措施。预计埃塞俄比亚将受到气候变化的最严重打击,最脆弱的部门是农业、水资源和人类健康(C. Arndt等人,2009年,全球环境基金,2009年)。这可能会大大扭转埃塞俄比亚在减贫和粮食安全方面取得的进展。分析和评估气候变化的时空趋势将有助于更好地了解气候变化的影响,从而在埃塞俄比亚制定更好的适应和减缓气候变化战略,并鼓励当地社区积极参与和国家努力,为减缓全球气候变化作出贡献。在脆弱的农村社区以及社区、次国家和国家层面的机构之间采取积极主动的方法来管理气候风险,是实现可持续经济发展的关键一步[1-7]。
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Spatiotemporal Climate Change and Resilience through Nature Conservation in Ethiopia
World Bank (2006) asserts that rainfall variability costs the Ethiopian economy 38% of its potential growth rate. Net revenue per hectare will be reduced by USD 177.62 and 464.71 consequent to a unit increase in temperature during summer and winter seasons, respectively. Climate change is therefore a threat to the Ethiopian economy. The available option for Ethiopia to reduce the wide-ranging impacts of climate change is to develop mitigation strategy for resilience. Vulnerabilities are local and require location specific adaptation and mitigation measures. Ethiopia is expected to be hardest hit by climate change and the most vulnerable sectors are agriculture, water resources, and human health (C. Arndt et al., 2009, GEF, 2009). This can significantly reverse the progress towards poverty reduction and food security in Ethiopia. Analyzing and assessing the spatiotemporal climate change trends would help better understand impacts of climate change to formulate better strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation in Ethiopia and encourage local proactive community participation and national efforts as a contribution to global climate change mitigation. Proactive approaches to managing climate risks within vulnerable rural communities and among institutions operating at community, sub-national, and national levels is a crucial step towards achieving the sustainable economic development [1-7].
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