Does tertiarisation slow down productivity growth? A Kaldorian–Baumolian analysis across 10 developed economies

This study examines the impact of the expansion of the service sector on labour productivity growth in 10 developed economies, reaching back to the late 1970s. The main research novelty is that it combines both Kaldorian and Baumolian insights to develop a new shift-share decomposition that, consistent with Kaldorian theory, endogenises productivity growth at the industry level with respect to structural change, and, consistent with the Baumolian framework, includes the impact that arises from the cumulative reallocation of nominal output and employment. Our results show that tertiarisation leads to a gradual decrease in productivity growth in most of these economies.